It’s Been a Hell of a Week in NC-11
On Monday, August 3, the House Ethics Committee recommended that Representative Chuck Edwards be censured over what it called “persistent unprofessional and inappropriate conduct” toward two young female staffers, concluding that there was “substantial reason to believe Representative Edwards violated House Rules related to sexual harassment and hostile workplaces.”
Edwards pushed back. His attorneys filed a 15-page rebuttal calling the findings “unfounded,” and saying the report actually exonerated him—pointing out that the committee found no evidence he engaged in sexual activity with or propositioned any staffer, and did not conclude he violated federal sexual harassment law.
The committee recommended censure anyway.1
Then, at 3:32 AM on Wednesday, August 5, Edwards announced on X that he was withdrawing from his re-election campaign, although he would complete his current term.
The Process
Power now shifts from Edwards and the voters to the NC 11th Congressional District Republican Party Executive Committee. The process from here is spelled out in a combination of state law and the NC GOP Plan of Organization.2
On Monday, August 10 at 6:30 PM in Asheville, the committee—61 party leaders from across the district—will nominate and select the candidate who’ll appear on the November ballot. Nominations must come from the floor and the votes are not weighted—every executive committee member gets one vote. See below for the distribution of those votes.3
It’s basically six days of speed dating between a 61-person panel and everyone who wants a spot on the ballot. And that’s assuming all of them actually make the trek to Asheville for a 6:30 Monday meeting.4
Who’s in the Mix?
Most of the tools of social science—things like polls, focus groups, and analysis of past voting behavior—are pretty useless here.
To understand what’s going to happen, we need to know the behavior and motivations of 61 people who vary considerably in attention and incentives—not to mention the desires of the potential candidates to run a congressional campaign in three months where they’re already down ~$2 million.
So, all we’re really left with are public statements and some logic.
Theoretically the committee can pick anyone, but the natural place to look first is NC-11’s current state legislative delegation.
Among state senators, the story thus far is mostly one of talented people taking a pass. Kevin Corbin (NC-50), Warren Daniel (NC-46), and Tim Moffitt have all said they’re out. That leaves Ralph Hise (NC-47) as the only sitting senator in the district who hasn’t publicly weighed in.
Over in the state House, Karl Gillespie (NC-120) looks like a strong possibility and someone worth watching.
Others are less likely. Anna Ferguson (NC-119) is brand new and seems unlikely to jump in; Mark Pless (NC-118), who recently lost his primary, is out — and gave a hell of a quote doing it, telling Bryan Anderson of The Assembly, “that level of scrutiny and harassment is not on my bucket list.”
Jake Johnson (NC-113) is also out. He represents part of NC-11 but lives “one precinct outside of it.” Legally, this wouldn’t actually preclude a run, since you don’t have to live in a district to represent it in Congress, but he’s ruled it out regardless.
Of course the executive committee doesn’t have to nominate a member of the North Carolina General Assembly. And doing so would create an extra set of headaches as they would then have to undergo another appointment process to replace that legislator on the ballot.
So, who else is possible?
There are 15 1/2 counties in the district. All but one (Buncombe) have Republican county commissioners--many of those folks might (?) be interested in a congressional run.
Then there are Republicans who’ve run for NC-11 before, lost, and stayed active locally—Ken McKim, Kristie Sluder, Christian Reagan, Michele Woodhouse, Matthew Burril5 and Adam Smith6, are some, but by no means all of the names.7
The Waiting is the Hardest Part
In the end, the speculation is fun but, as I said at the top, probably not terribly predictive. We’ll just have to wait and see who ends up facing Jamie Ager in what is already the most interesting general election race in NC-11 since 2006.8
—Update at 8:17 PM on Aug. 9—
WLOS-TV is reporting that 5 folks are nominees for #nc11. See the snippet below from this article.
It’s worth noting that officially, nominees must come from the floor on Monday at the executive committee meeting.
These names are almost certainly the starting point for discussion, but none of this precludes another candidate from getting a nomination—nor does it guarantee that any of these folks will get a vote.
Although Edwards is not running for re-election, the censure vote is still active and will presumably come before the full House of Representatives for a vote.
I’ve seen a few folks online criticizing the process. To be clear, the GOP has no choice in the matter. State law specifies that withdrawing from the ballot does not trigger a special election, but rather it goes to the executive committee of the party.
This is a closed-door meeting.
I don’t mean this as a joke. It’s 61 folks with lives and schedules that were made weeks or months ago. Maybe they have surgery planned that day. Maybe it’s their kids’ back to school night. Maybe they had a vacation planned for a week-long mountain biking trip (yes, I’m projecting what I wish I was doing). Regardless, it’s unlikely they will all be there; the presence or absence of a few could make a difference.
Smith lost to Edwards in the 2026 primary.
Judge Bob Orr floated bringing back former Representative Charles Taylor—the only Republican who’s represented NC-11 and still lives in the district. As Orr put it on X, “if Mitch McConnell can keep serving and Chuck Grassley can run for re-election, why not Charlie?” As I hope is clear, Judge Orr meant this as a joke.
Democrat Heath Shuler ousted incumbent Republican Charles Taylor in 2006. It’s the same Charles Taylor in footnote 2; no relation to the shoes.